Domestic oil price adjustment is likely to be stranded for the third time this year

A new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. Many institutions predict that due to the impact of the epidemic and other factors, international oil prices will rise and fall during this round of pricing cycle. This time refined oil price adjustment is likely to be stranded, which will be the third time this year stranded. .

　　 During this round of pricing cycle, the prices of international crude oil futures rose first and then fell. By the end of the cycle, the prices of both the U.S. and Burundi oil both fell. In the early morning of August 7 (Saturday), Beijing time, WTI crude oil futures settled at US$68.28/barrel, a decrease of 1.17%; Brent October crude oil futures settled at US$70.70/barrel, a decrease of 0.83%.

Jin Lianchuang analyst Han Zhengji analyzed that in the early stage, international crude oil prices continued to rise, and tight supply and demand are expected to continue to boost oil prices. The market expects that the recovery of demand in the United States, India and Europe will further tighten the global crude oil market. It is believed that the increase in OPEC+ production is difficult to change the current short-term market trend of short supply. In addition, factors such as the sharp reduction in US crude oil inventories have also provided strong support for crude oil prices.

　　Han Zhengji said that in the later period, the epidemic caused the economic recovery of major oil-consuming countries to face risks, and oil prices were under pressure to drop sharply. Although the United States, Europe and other countries and regions have taken measures to prevent and control the epidemic, the market is still worried about the room for growth in fuel demand in the second half of the year.

　　 China Universe Information analyst Liu Biao also pointed out that as the epidemic continues to spread, the global number of new crown cases has surged, and the market's view of the demand outlook is no longer as optimistic as before. The OPEC oil-producing countries increased their crude oil output in July to the highest level since April of last year, and the fundamentals of supply and demand diverged. Crude oil futures prices fell after August. The U.S. and Burundi oils have fallen below the $70 mark, but they rebounded slightly. , But it is difficult to change the situation of deep decline. Under the influence of the weak crude oil market, the adjustment of the zero price limit of domestic refined oil products is expected to continue to pull back.

　　According to calculations by many institutions, as of the ninth working day of the Japanese round on August 6, the price adjustment range for refined oil products with reference to the change rate of crude oil varieties was less than 50 yuan/ton. According to the current domestic refined oil pricing mechanism, when the increase or decrease is less than 50 yuan/ton, the domestic refined oil price will not be adjusted.

According to statistics from the Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, since 2021, domestic refined oil prices have been adjusted for fourteen rounds, gasoline prices have been increased by 1,375 yuan/ton in total, and diesel prices have been increased by 1,325 yuan/ton in total, showing "ten ups, two downs, and two strandeds". pattern. If this forecast is fulfilled, domestic refined oil price adjustments will be stranded for the third time this year.

In addition, Longzhong Information Li Yan mentioned that in terms of wholesale, the wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel have fallen recently. In addition to the impact of the once sharp drop in international oil prices, local epidemics have repeatedly suppressed gasoline consumption and the slow improvement in traditional off-season demand for diesel has also been brought about Coming under pressure. In terms of gas station retail, preferential policies continue. The retail price of gasoline at private gas stations is mostly 0.4-0.6 yuan/liter lower than that of main gas stations, and the discount can reach 1-1.3 yuan/liter during some site activities.